The climate crisis is coming for your groceries

A new joint report by the World Meteorological Organization and the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations confirms that rising global temperatures are already damaging agriculture and threatening future food security.

The report documents how extreme heat events, intensified by climate change, have caused significant crop failures and livestock losses across multiple regions, including Brazil, India, and North America. It highlights that in Brazil, prolonged heat waves have reduced yields of soy, corn, and coffee, while livestock suffered from heat stress.

It also notes that in 2021, the Pacific Northwest experienced a severe heat wave leading to major losses in fruit harvests and increased wildfires, and in India, wheat production declined sharply due to heat stress. The report emphasizes that these impacts are expected to worsen as global temperatures continue to rise, especially under high-emissions scenarios.

Why It Matters

This matters because disruptions in agriculture threaten global food supplies, increase prices, and exacerbate food insecurity, especially in vulnerable regions. The report underscores that climate change is not a distant threat but a current crisis impacting food systems worldwide.

Background

Over recent years, extreme weather events linked to climate change have become more frequent and intense. The FAO and WMO’s joint analysis builds on previous studies showing how heat stress affects crops and livestock, with Brazil serving as a detailed case study due to its large agricultural sector. The findings are part of broader evidence pointing to climate change’s direct impact on food security.

“We’re not moving at a speed that is good enough, and we have a residual risk that is increasing.”

— Martial Bernoux, FAO senior natural resources officer

“Heat is estimated to kill almost half a million people a year, driven by fossil fuel-charged, human-induced climate change.”

— UN Secretary-General António Guterres

“The diagnosis in this report is sharper than anything before, but the system’s response has yet to catch up.”

— Naia Ormaza Zulueta, researcher at UBC

What Remains Unclear

It is still unclear how much more severe climate impacts on agriculture will become in the coming decades, especially under different emissions pathways. The precise timeline and scale of future crop and livestock losses remain uncertain, as do the effectiveness of proposed adaptation measures.

What’s Next

Next steps include implementing targeted adaptation strategies, increasing climate resilience in agriculture, and strengthening international cooperation to reduce emissions. Further research is expected to refine projections and develop more effective interventions.

Key Questions

How soon will climate change significantly impact global food supplies?

Impacts are already occurring and are expected to intensify over the next decades, especially if emissions remain high. The report warns that by the end of the century, food security could be severely compromised in many regions.

What regions are most at risk from climate-related agricultural damage?

Regions including South Asia, sub-Saharan Africa, Brazil, and parts of North America are particularly vulnerable due to their dependence on climate-sensitive crops and livestock.

What can be done to mitigate these impacts?

Strategies include adopting climate-resilient crop varieties, changing planting schedules, improving water management, and reducing greenhouse gas emissions globally to limit future warming.

Are there any signs of adaptation already working?

Some localized efforts are underway, but the report indicates that global response has been insufficient and needs to accelerate significantly to prevent catastrophic impacts.